Dela

Get Dela

How estimates work.

Every date is an estimate, not a measurement. Your actual timing can differ.

Current release methodology · Updated August 28, 2026

How Dela creates estimates today

Dela estimates dates from the cycle history and settings you record.

Next period estimates

With little or no history, Dela uses the cycle length the person reported and shows wider uncertainty.

Every cycle you log teaches Dela more about your pattern, and estimates typically sharpen as your history grows. The displayed range narrows when your recorded cycles run steady, and widens when history is sparse, variable or marked irregular. Real life still moves timing: illness, stress, medication, postpartum changes, perimenopause, hormonal contraception and ordinary biological variation can all shift a cycle.

How cycle history is used

The estimator uses up to the recent cycle history available for that account. Depending on history depth, it combines recent values using robust measures such as a median, a trimmed mean, recency weighting, and a bounded trend. A median absolute deviation check reduces the influence of unusually long or short observations.

Estimated fertile days and ovulation

Fertile timing based only on a calendar is derived from an estimated ovulation day, not measured ovulation.

Logged signs
Logged cervical fluid and ovulation test results can add context about possible timing.
Temperature
A sustained shift in basal temperature is retrospective evidence only: it can suggest that ovulation may already have occurred, but temperature alone does not prove an exact day. Fever, sleep disruption, alcohol, travel, measurement time, and device differences can affect readings.

Dela pauses natural fertile window and ovulation estimates when pregnancy is active or when an active hormonal method makes the assumption about a natural cycle inappropriate. If Dela cannot identify the active method, it does not show those estimates.

How the calendar window is calculated

The fallback assumes ovulation roughly 14 days before the next estimated period, bounded so it does not overlap implausible cycle edges. Dela marks a conservative window from five days before through one day after that estimated day. The boundary follows the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists' explanation that sperm may survive several days and an egg may survive about 24 hours after ovulation.

Pregnancy dating

If a person enters a due date from a clinician, Dela uses that date for its week counter.

Otherwise, the general fallback adds 280 days to the first day of the entered last menstrual period. This does not account for every cycle pattern, assisted reproduction date, or ultrasound finding. A clinician's obstetric estimate should replace an app estimate; an ultrasound in the first trimester is generally more accurate for clinical dating.

How Dela is tested, and the bar ahead

What is tested

Automated tests cover boundary dates, irregular and sparse histories, missing data, contraception suppression, overdue cycles, pregnancy mode, time zones, and consistency between the app and the API.

The clinical bar ahead

Software tests show that the code behaves as designed; on their own they are not evidence of clinical accuracy, so Dela does not present them as claims about sensitivity, specificity or pregnancy rates.

Clinical-grade validation is a bar Dela is building toward, not one it claims today. The measurement framework for it is already running: for people who opt in, Dela compares its estimates against what actually happened, and it will make accuracy claims only when that evidence supports them. Until then, treat every date as an informed estimate.

How accuracy is evaluated

Improving accuracy is a choice, not a default. For people who turn on prediction improvement, Dela compares estimates with recorded outcomes as de-identified, aggregate measures, never as a review of any one person's entries, and only once enough people have opted in for individual data to disappear into the group. The measures include error in period start dates, interval coverage, abstention rate, fertile-window overlap and consistency across groups with different cycle variability. A newer model ships only after this evaluation shows it is genuinely better.

References and further context

These references inform boundaries and limitations; they do not certify Dela or make its estimates medical advice. Questions about this methodology can be sent to hello@delacycle.com.

Ask about an estimate